Oh come on, we’re not an energy company. We’re still free as a bird, we can now do this with less aggro, and all of our stuff is now in one place. Whoop.

This month, we give you our take on why the demise of unicorns is a really good thing, how to think differently about market indicators and what you offer, and why you can’t wish your way to success.

Let’s crack on then.

Dragons are eating Unicorns

What’s going on? 

In 2021, 537 unicorns emerged. This year unicorns will be in much shorter supply, but dragons are now all the rage, so they won’t be missed. Having a company valued at $1 billion or more was the dreamy-eyed goal of many VCs and the stimulant-fuelled, bleary-eyed power play for tech startup founders. Now, not so much. It turns out that sometimes, only sometimes mind, some of those people would cut corners and do irresponsible things to get to that unicorn status. We’re shocked.

In this Fast Company piece, Maëlle Gavet sets out why investors are now looking for businesses that are, well, proper businesses. Explaining how the pursuit of unicorn valuations in the tech world has led companies to de-prioritise business fundamentals, shovelling mountains of investors’ cash into buying ‘customers’ at the expense of creating a sustainable business.

Why is this important? 

Finally. Finally, finally, finally. The nonsense that was scale-at-all-costs, figure-it-out-later thinking is dying, in favour of a focus on creating real businesses. Don’t ask us why calling a real business a ‘dragon’ was a good idea but hey. FWIW, we’d have gone with stallions.

The ‘out’ for many investors until now was a public IPO, but with markets in a mess, the chances of getting that big payday is next to nil. So, it’s back to business 101: create something that can make money and can build a growing, sustainable market position. Maybe even a somewhat defensible one (good luck with that).

Getting out of the “it’ll be worth MILLIONS! BILLIONS!” mindset that even corporate innovators got into is a very important phase in the innovation economy. It’s reckoned that one in four startups return the capital invested in them. Most of those are sold to another company. Only a very small % become viable long-term businesses. Perhaps, now that we’re in the age of the dragons (perhaps not this one), everyone will focus on building businesses, not myths.

Follow our simple golden rule. Users just use you. Customers pay you what you’re worth.

Read Maëlle Gavet’s article here

The economic forecast: Lipstick up; pants down

What’s going on? 

Consumer behaviour during an economic downturn can be somewhat – unpredictable. This glorious piece from The Department (extracted from their podcast) walks us through a history of some of the most reliable indicators for economic health and stability. And they might surprise you.

Some of you may have heard of the Lipstick Index: basically a predictor of economic health based on lipstick sales. In the 2001 and 2008 recessions, lipstick flew off the shelves – the theory being that (mainly) women purchased more of something relatively inexpensive that could make them feel good about themselves. Conversely, a downturn in men’s pants (we know how many types of wrong that sounds) is rooted in the fact that men think of them as ‘invisible’ – so in tough times, men will replace them last, by which point they resemble fishing nets. You get the idea. 

So, given that most trends are not worth the electricity it costs to display them, might there be other, more lateral indicators like these that can be used to provide insight into the state of things, and how people feel about it?

Why is this important?

Well, lipstick sales are up 48% YoY apparently – so there’s definitely a crunch. And we can’t walk down the road now without thinking about the whole ‘not replacing the pants’ thing. So that’s ruined the daily dog walks.

But more seriously, it’s worth thinking hard about both what indicators can give your business clues about market conditions, and what you might do with your product or proposition to align with how buying customers feel about life. Look in unexpected places, and be prepared to think laterally about what each might mean. And don’t assume that what many might consider an unnecessary ‘nice to have’ like lipstick will sell less well when things get tough. It’s actually the ‘nice to have’ that makes it attractive.

Here’s one that you can all pay attention to:

One of the first observations on the Necktie Index is that (in general) - the more senior officers of the company wear neckties, and the more meetings they attend, the more trouble the company is in.

Beware the tie. You’re welcome.

Listen to the The Department podcast here

The Meta Kool-Aid is tasting a bit off

What's going on?

Big tech is in meltdown. Ok, it’s not, but it makes for better headlines. The layoffs across the sector have been widely publicised, with many tens of thousands of employees of Amazon, Google, Meta et al being ‘let go’ (don’t you love that expression?).

In this NYT piece, journalist Mike Isaac lays out some of the pressures facing Meta, who are absorbing a $4.2Bn restructuring charge as a result of their 11,000 layoff restructure (the share price soared on this announcement: what a world we live in).

The Zuck has been investing gazzilions in the metaverse but the core advertising business has struggled, not least because Apple disabled one of the key ways that Meta tracked you across the internet so that it could exploit that data without you knowing to promote terrible things to you. And breathe.

Along with many of those lofty peers, the cuts reflect two things: hiring too many people based on assumptions about the market, and a business model that is fragile, despite its scale. With the inspiring management theme for 2023 – the ‘Year of Efficiency’ – tattooed on his exec team, the article cites: “Mr. Zuckerberg and others admitted they had been too quick to estimate that a largely digital life was the new reality for many”. ‘Too deluded to estimate’ would have been more accurate, surely?

Why is this important?

Ok, ok, Meta-hating aside, there’s a ton to unpack here that should matter to everyone else. Let’s focus on two.

First, the business model. Meta’s vast investments in the metaverse (can we call it the metafarce yet? Too soon?) have been funded by its advertising business, which is in turn built on its ability to stalk you across the internet and show you ads and content that make Meta money. In one simple privacy-focused move, Apple cost that model $Billions. The economic downturn has cost it even more $Billions. And based on lipstick sales, that’s only going in one direction.

Two billion users use Meta’s services but only a tiny % of those are paying customers (generally businesses). It’s basically a one-trick pony. So when the fan gets hit there are few levers you can pull to do anything about it – except cut costs and hope you can keep investing in virtual sofas at the same rate. Interestingly, the only major tech company that hasn’t announced swingeing cuts (to date) is, yes, Apple, who only have a very, very tiny % of users: almost 100% of their customer base paid and/or pays them directly, in real money, and they’re super-loyal – so that position is very defensible. Hmmm, maybe there’s something in those dragons after all, eh?

The second is even more critical for everyone else. In a joyous ironic twist, they believed their own hype at the expense of reality. Of course we’re not all ready to live ‘largely digital lives’. And of course there will eventually be a virtual world of some kind. But between now and a large enough ‘many’ of us inhabiting it regularly to make it pay, there’s a yawning canyon.

Everyone should think about how to create new customer behaviours, but we’d caution against centring the ambition in changing the entirety of human existence. Maybe Meta have enough money to make it a reality, and maybe not, but we’re betting that no-one reading this is willing to burn cash for fun. Please, keep your futurestate within reach.

Read The New York Times article here

Thanks for joining us this month. We’re off to create the Futureverse. Anyone want to buy an ad in next month’s edition? Only $4Bn. Anyone?

Of course, at the end of every year all sorts of people tell us what the next year’s big trends will be. Now we’re allergic to trends (they’re usually a scent trail that leads off a cliff) but we thought we’d give you our take on the few genuinely interesting things that popped up.

Let’s do this.

Harnessing a radical shift in the rights of a river

What’s going on?

LinkedIn editors asked their community of ‘top voices’ and ‘creators’ to share what they believe will define the year ahead. That becomes LinkedIn’s “Big Ideas 2023: 20 bold predictions for the year ahead”.

The report largely tells everyone what they already knew. Hybrid working’s a big deal. Menopause is big business. The economy’s screwed. Retail’s going to get physical again. Seaweed is the answer to everything. You get the idea.

Is anything interesting?

Yes, actually. There’s a fabulous insight from Dr Erin O'Donnell from the University of Melbourne about how “more nations will give animals, trees and rivers the rights of people”. We love this. Partly because it’s about time a river could sue humans for messing it up, but mainly because it’s the kind of change that drives bold new thinking. Also, dogs being able to sue fireworks manufacturers would bring one of our team immense satisfaction.

This reallocation of rights from humans to the parts of nature that actually deserve them will force a radical rethink for how many organisations operate, and you know what? The end result will almost certainly be a better business. So why not try applying some radical ‘what if this fundamental change were forced on us?’ scenarios to your current business or product and see where it leads you? Try 'what if [e.g. insurance] was made illegal?' as a starter for ten.

Oh, and you’d better start preparing for the day when your data lake can take you to court for polluting it with so much s***.

Wet hot AI anyone?

What’s going on?

You can’t talk 2023 trends without talking about generative AI. In this great WIRED piece (it’s from his newsletter actually), godly tech journo Steven Levy discusses how much Google have held back their generative model AI tech due to ethical concerns, and how ChatGPT (that’s a Generative Pre-trained Transformer for those who don’t keep up) has just jumped in and become the most amazing thing that most people have ever experienced.

Google’s researchers have been holding back their tech because, while the capabilities of these generative models are phenomenal, there’s no way to be sure (yet) that what they’re putting out isn’t dangerous or damaging. But this is now a horse that’s bolted and 2023 is going to be the start of ‘a wet hot AI summer’ where everyone scrambles to take advantage of this technology.

Why is it important?

You’ll just have to believe us when we say that ChatGPT didn’t write this. But it could have made a decent stab at it (ok, it would have been better). The implications are profound for anything, and we mean anything, that involves content generation.

Steven Levy captures it nicely: “The cost of churning out generic copy will go to zero. By the end of the decade, AI video-generation systems may well dominate TikTok and other apps. They may not be anywhere as good as the innovative creations of talented human beings, but the robots will quantitatively dominate.”

The content industries are about to get another kick up the rear – or perhaps a kick in the teeth might be more accurate. For what it’s worth, we think that this tech will quickly liberate a whole generation of people who are great thinkers but not great writers. Who knows, most business documents might even become readable without nausea. While the metaverse is pretending to be important already, generative AI actually is. It’s that rarest of things; a trend we actually want to follow.

You'll be into ruffles, fringes, origami and quilling by next year

What’s going on?

Now let’s have a little fun. Generated from their own usage data, Pinterest’s trends report is a little different from the ‘war/recession/the great reflection’ kind of trends. As a result, you’ll find it full of unexpected things that lie ahead for you and your 2023 vibe.

It’s full of colours, fashions, hairstyles, lifestyle and life-living ‘trends’ that we can expect to see a lot more of in 2023. They include such gems as ‘the free-spirited fluidity of fringe’ and Gen X ‘pampering their porches’. And in case you’re wondering, they have a pretty high success rate at calling these things.

Why is it important?

Well, let’s be honest, most of it isn’t. But in aggregate it is. Surface trends like the ones in this report are highly short-term-reliable as they’re based on real usage data, reflecting what people are actually pinning into and searching for on Pinterest. Growing numbers of people pinning perfect pics of pixie-cuts (try saying that after a wine or two) means we’ll see more of them strutting our streets, and more of you will be tempted to do the same as a result. You’ve got to get that mop on-trend right?

In many ways though, this type of insight is far more useful than the big sweeping ones – largely because if you aren’t already thinking about what impact those will have you’re in serious trouble. Think of them as something you should stand back from, to look for patterns that might lead to ideas for something new. It’s more like reading tea-leaves: let your brain interpret an unusual set of stimulus and you’ll likely create somewhere unexpected.

Right, must go, we have to go and re-brand all of our furniture as ‘hipstoric’ and get it on eBay.

On the one hand, businesses think they’re a great idea: it’s regular, predictable income. On the other, consumers are getting twitchy: those regular, predictable outgoings keep adding up. Let’s dig a little deeper to see how to lose a ton of money with them and without them – and why banks might, for once, be a force for good.

Mickey’s burning Disney Dollars

What’s going on?

Disney+ has been the poster-child of consumer subscription businesses over the last few years, out-pacing Netflix to hit 235 million subscribers. That’s an impressive number. The problem is, the quarterly losses from its streaming businesses, of which Disney+ represents the mouse’s share (sorry), hit $1.5Bn. That’s a scary number. It’s so big it almost offset all the profits from the rest of the business. Gulp.

235 million is a lot of subscribers. If anyone should know about making an entertainment business work, it’s Disney. But it turns out a subscription-based entertainment business is a little tougher. So tough in fact that they’ve retired the CEO (they dropped a big anvil on him apparently, but he’s fine) and un-retired their iconic former leader, Bob Iger, to sort it all out.

Good luck Bob. We loved your autobiography, btw.

Why is it important?

Well, despite what many (naive fools) would suggest, subscriptions are not easy money. Far from it. Disney has shown that making a subscription business work is tough. But the two big takeaways for everyone here are that if you want to be this kind of big, it’ll cost you big, and whether you want to scale fast or slow, you need to be prepared for a long haul.

Read more here

Alexa’s burning Amazon

What’s going on?

“Alexa, what’s a business model?” Eight years into Alexa’s existence and the device is on pace to lead Amazon’s “Worldwide Digital” unit to a $10Bn loss this year. Yep, that's right. $10 billion. Suddenly the profligate Mouse looks like the cautious uncle.

Amazon isn’t shy about owning up to these losses. The strategy, after all, has been to get these products into a customers home as a gateway for shopping. The thing is, that hasn’t been, ahem, terribly popular. In this Arstechnica article, the conclusion is that just about every plan to monetise Alexa has failed – with one Amazon employee quoted saying that it has been “a colossal failure of imagination" and "a wasted opportunity”. Well that’s awkward.

Why is it important?

Recent estimates suggest the annual smart home market will generate over $170Bn by 2025. Is it just a case of waiting until more volume is there?

We say that’s a big fat no. Alexa isn’t a product, it’s a platform, and while recent history tells us that platform businesses take a long time to build scale, Amazon has the scale thing nailed. What it needs is a business model. It needs subscriptions and it needs them bad.

For better or for worse Amazon has spent the last 10 years creating all of the ingredients of a great subscription business. Its users have even built more than 100,000 ‘skills’. With some smart thinking on Amazon’s part, and a very sensible pricing strategy, there are a lot of people who would subscribe to enhanced smart home services. The average UK home has 25 connected devices already and that number is set to double in a year. That is an incredible market to be the leader in.

Maybe it’s time for Alexa to ask someone else for the answer.

Read the Arstechnica article here

It’s VRPs to the rescue! Wait, what?

What’s going on?

Great news. Banks are getting into the subscription business. To be fair, any account with a fee attached already is a subscription, but we’ll park that for now. Because we want to talk about VRPs.

As most will know, open banking is how we now connect our bank accounts to other digital services. It lets us share our banking data and allows third parties to build additional services around it. It’s enabled some of our favourite services, like Chip, to connect to your bank through secure APIs to make AI-powered savings based on what you spend.

Now, a mechanism called VRPs (Variable Recurring Payments) is enabling consumers to pay all their loss-making subscription providers by connecting their bank accounts. Exciting eh? Well it’s more exciting than it sounds as it might give consumers more control of those pesky outgoings and encourage providers to make more customer-friendly features, like taking a break for a few months, easier, which in turn might help them keep more of those customers as customers.

Why is it important?

VRPs bring a little secure open-banking kudos to the world of subscriptions, so it may help some providers build new, innovative recurring payment-based services that consumers feel confident about signing up to because they’re ‘blessed’ by their bank. But for us, the big impact will come from the degree of visibility and control it will give consumers.

One of the reasons consumers are wary of subscription businesses is the ‘sign up and forget’ nature of them, and the ‘sorry, all lines are busy, forever’ cancellation mechanisms so many still think are a good idea. As soon as they’re all lined up nicely in your bank account (as some banks already do in a less tech-sexy way) and you can see what they add up to, you’re much more likely to switch off the ones you can do without – and VRPs make that easier too.

It’s that rarest of things: a banking win-win. You’re welcome.

Read Sifted's take here

Confessions over, let’s get on with the show.

Ticketmaster’s dynamic reputation

What’s going on

The ticketing industry’s already fragile reputation took another hit earlier this month as Ticketmaster announced the use of dynamic ticket pricing for some of the UK’s biggest upcoming tours. This led to some, let’s call them ‘pricey’ Harry Styles tickets and some very upset fans.

The crushing blow of missing out on an evening with Harry aside, we find this particularly interesting as a behavioural challenge. Dynamic pricing as a strategy itself isn’t new to consumers: it's widely used in services from Virgin Atlantic to Uber. Seats selling fast for that flight? Increase the price. High demand for drivers? Pay more to buy a ride home. It’s a mechanism that has been around for a long time – creating value from scarcity and helping service providers ensure quality whilst managing demand. It’s also, of course, the fundamental business model of ticket touts.

What does this mean?

If you only consider your goal to be maximising income, dynamic pricing is a logical strategy. Ticketmaster, the artists, the venues and the myriad parties taking their percentage all make more if tickets are in demand and can sell for more. And, according to Ticketmaster, it helps to push touts out of touting.

However, while this is obviously a win for income, it can also be extremely short-termist and those effects can be hard to track. As with all equivalent concepts, you can’t simply pick and apply without considering the context the strategy will exist in, nor what its long-term impacts might be. Concepts like Taylor Swift's ‘slow-ticketing’ mechanism (basically, price high first, then drop if demand is slow) is a great example of how artists can build on the concept of dynamic pricing but it got a lot of fan backlash. If fans can’t experience their favourite acts live, they may end up not being fans at all.

Dynamic pricing is an example of a strategy that can be game-changing, but it’s also a great example of one that can have unintended consequences. When you try something new on something old, tread carefully and don’t forget to think long-term.

NYC’s bike lane bounty

What’s going on?

A bill that would allow New Yorkers to collect bounties for reporting bike-lane blockers is the latest attempt by a major US city to make roads safer for pedestrians and cyclists while encouraging residents to leave their cars at home and seek out alternative forms of transportation. The proposed bill is a carbon copy of NYC’s 2020 clean-air program that allows people to report commercial vehicles that are parked and idling for more than three minutes. Those who report infractions by submitting a video can collect 25 percent of the fine collected by the city. Easy $$$, right? 

There’s no doubt the program has been a success. There were 12,267 reports in 2021, up 35% from 2019. Roughly 92% of those reports resulted in tickets, netting the city $2.3 million and $724,293 for the civilians who reported violations, according to the Department of Environmental Protection.

Why it’s important

Social enforcement schemes can be powerful, but can again have unexpected consequences. The NYC program has given rise to a particular breed of urban ‘bounty hunters’ – people who hunt down idling trucks and shoot videos to make money, raising concerns about the wider social impact of having New Yorkers report each other, and the obvious opportunities for abuse. It raises some big social questions: incentivising part of a community to hit other members in the pocket as a way of bringing about positive change might end up doing the opposite.

We think this is going to be a massive issue for digital platforms and communities in the coming years. As Elon does what Elon wants to Twitter and ever-more-vitamin-D-deprived-people inhabit the metaverse, it’s hard not to imagine this type of peer-to-peer policing being seen as the solution to upholding community standards. We can’t wait for Zuckerberg’s meta-truck to get its first fine.

Read Bloomberg's original report here

Google doubles down on being smart

What’s going on?

Google is revamping it’s Google Home app, launching new products and setting out a new vision for the smart home. Apple is doing the same. Coincidence? No, it’s all about Matter: the first industry-wide smart home connectivity standard. It aims to address many consumer pain points – interoperability being number one, swiftly followed by complicated setup, confusing integrations and poor reliability. Matter should mean that different devices and ecosystems will play nicely - regardless of which manufacturer made them.

So, if you want to use Siri to ask Alexa if she knows anyone who can get you a dynamically priced Harry Styles ticket, then turn down your lights and switch on the fan while you listen to his new album on a Google smart speaker, you’ll be set.

Why it’s important

This story is significant in two ways. The first is an undeniable masterclass in grabbing an opportunity, setting a vision and executing a strategy to achieve it. Many could have responded to Matter by simply retrofitting devices and in-app services with the ability to meet the new standards. Google, with their smart home purpose to be ‘at the centre of a helpful home’, instead decided to rethink their vision and restructure their offering to achieve it.

The second is what Matter will mean for connected technologies in the home. The opportunity for new and innovative services Matter creates in smart home ecosystems is not one we’ve seen before. What sets Matter apart from other ‘tech standards’ is the breadth of its membership (more than 550 tech companies), the willingness to adopt and merge disparate technologies, and the fact that it is an open source project. That it was started over a dinner by Apple, Google and Amazon employees doesn’t hurt either.

Sometimes, playing nicely with your competitors is the smart thing to do. Make the broad infrastructure simpler and more consumers will use it, making the market bigger for everyone. Compete where you can differentiate, not where everyone is the same. So go book that dinner, using the smart assistant of your choice, naturally.

See Google's 'Reimagining the future' announcement here

On this month's agenda is an example of why operating in accordance with your purpose matters most in turbulent times, why some really bold futurestate thinking is needed if we’re going to make the transition to EVs without turning the lights off everywhere else, and the importance of partnerships being able to see and agree on the long road ahead.

Let’s get on with it then.

The Purposeful Octopus

What’s going on?

As the global energy crisis deepens, few in the industry are remaining untouched by widespread criticism. Here in the UK, there is an increasing sense of unease over the scale of emergency measures being put in place, the risk for households and businesses and the lack of flexibility being shown by the companies that are relied on to provide energy, especially to those most in need. You only need to add the backdrop of a warming planet and you’ve got all the ingredients needed for a full-blown crisis for every business involved.

This brings us to Octopus Energy. Seemingly, doing quite well for itself. After becoming the fifth biggest energy supplier in the UK earlier this year they are sitting pretty at the top of Trustpilot’s consumer ratings with a score of 4.8. That’s better than its closest big five rival EDF who sit at 4.2 and substantially better than Eon, Scottish Power and British Gas who sit on scores of 3.5, 3.4 and 3.3 respectively. Remember, these are all companies that offer exactly the same core products (gas and electricity) that consumers largely take for granted, in a highly regulated market.

Why its important

While there is no magic tonic for businesses in the midst of a crisis there are a number of tools that the most resilient (and successful) regularly lean on to navigate the overwhelming pressures they face. Octopus are clearly leveraging the value of a clear purpose.

We’ve long written about the value of a clear purpose being one of the most powerful strategic assets for a company and Octopus has shown us that they are no exception.

Every action Octopus has taken during the energy crisis has been aligned with – and measured against – its purpose. Giving customers the ability to use energy when it’s cheapest or healthiest for the grid, charge their EV’s based on when they are most likely to use it, running trials to explore how customers can engage with energy in new ways or simply helping customers switch from gas to electric. Every scheme or initiative is aligned with their purpose.

While Octopus isn’t the cheapest supplier, it consistently outperforms its major competitors… some of that is down to great operational management, but we believe it’s a great example of why and how a clear purpose can help businesses perform better day-to-day.

You can read more about Octopus Energy's rise to the top on WIRED

Sunset for overnight charging?

What’s going on?

Staying on the energy theme, research has found that the growth in electric car ownership could overwhelm power grids if most drivers continue charging primarily at home overnight. The findings come from computer models analysing EV driver charging behaviours and how they impact peak net electricity demand.

It makes for uncomfortable reading – peak net electricity demand at night may make cheap overnight energy more expensive for consumers because peak demand will shift from washing machines and kettles during the day to EVs (and many other devices) at night. Consumers relying on ‘intelligent’ charging patterns for their EV based on when they are most likely to use it may end up out of pocket. The report does suggest, unsurprisingly, that daytime charging opportunities could help solve the problem and help reduce costs. But no matter how you cut it, energy companies need to adapt.

Why its important

A few months ago, we wrote about Netflix’s in-house content distribution network – Open Connect – and how they realised that they could steal a march on their competitors by taking ownership of this critical network component themselves. They built their own bespoke CDN (content delivery network) to host their content… close to where their users are. Recent economic headwinds aside, this has been a massive part of Netflix’s success to date. 

There’s an obvious parallel here. Energy companies need to rethink, away from a traditional centralised system, towards a more adaptable localised infrastructure. It’s not about cables, it’s about what goes down them, how much is available at any given time, and how much it costs to deliver it.

This has the smell of an inflexion point, with the global drive (sorry) to adoption of EVs the factor that could really tip things over. Forward-thinking is needed by the bucketload, lateral thinking even more so. Oh, and whoever’s writing those smart charging algorithms might need to start shipping some firmware upgrades before they switch all the lights off.

Read more about the report on New Scientist

Your virtual GP will see you… never.

What’s going on?

Babylon Health rapidly grew into one of England’s biggest GP practices by taking advantage of structural changes to the NHS that allowed people to register at a doctor’s office outside of the usual catchment area. The remote GP service was able to register thousands of people – almost ten times more patients than the practice it took over from. Unfortunately, it ended up sparking a £22-million shortfall in the budget of the West London health authority where it was ‘based’. 

Earlier this month Babylon Health cancelled its last hospital contract with the NHS, eight years early. It’s the sort of dine-and-dash conclusion we are all too familiar with when it comes to the NHS and health tech start-ups. Babylon wouldn’t flex its model enough to work better for the NHS, and the NHS wouldn’t grant it opportunities for greater scale unless it became structurally NHS-friendly. As a result, Babylon has walked away to focus on private and US growth where, of course, everyone pays for their healthcare and margins can be meaty.

Why its important

Public/private partnerships are critical to delivering innovation in public services, as robust ecosystems are for commercial organisations. Babylon walking away from the NHS shows that this type of partnership can be nigh-on impossible to make work if the parties aren’t aligned on a vision and long-term goals from the very start. Babylon’s business model is geared towards growing both its per-customer revenues and its company value, not optimising its service for low-margin public health contracts.

Aside from re-emphasising the point we made last month – that healthcare needs a bigger, bolder futurestate vision – this is a great example of why in any kind of partnership it’s critical to invest the effort needed to build, visualise and align behind a shared vision from the outset. Realising a bold ambition is not about water-tight contracts, it’s about deep alignment on key goals – and nothing is better at making that happen than a vision that everyone can see.

Read WIRED's report on Babylons exit from the NHS here

Successfully making high-performance shoes with a radical reduction in CO2 manufacturing footprint contrasts with the minimal progress AI has made in its promised transformation of healthcare. Meanwhile, companies worldwide are investing an eye-watering amount of money (we don’t get to use ‘trillions’ very often here) in transformation capabilities – without doing much transforming as a result. Enjoy.

Why everyone should be aiming for the moon

What’s going on?

In 2020, FutureCraft Footprint, a collaboration between Adidas and Allbirds, set out to create a high-performance running shoe with the lowest carbon footprint in the industry. Their moonshot was to develop a product that was lower than 2kg of CO2 per pair. For context on the scale of that technological challenge, performance shoes on the market, at the time, ranged from 8kg to 12kg of CO2 per pair.

They achieved (so far) a performance shoe that generates 2.94kg CO2 per pair, and the results of their technology and process experiments are being used in all kinds of departments across each business to drive product quality, performance and continually align their overall sustainability goals.

Why it matters

What’s powerful about this project is that the teams didn’t approach this challenge with the goal of using a certain technology or process. In fact, there’s hardly a mention of the technology involved. Instead, the focus is on two teams, from two different (and technically competing) companies, collaborating to achieve a single ‘unachievable’ goal – by focusing on the simple question of “where can we reduce?”

This is a brilliant example of the mindset digital businesses need today – setting radical goals, then giving teams the licence to experiment with technology, collaborate with competitors, bring in new brains, and employ resources and data to achieve a remarkable goal. Ultimately a slew of technologies realised the end product, but it was two companies and their respective teams thinking and behaving differently that made it possible. They asked the right questions and answered them in the right way.

You can listed or read more on the Rebellious Optimists Podcast

AI is underwhelming

What’s going on?

Ok, perhaps not underwhelming, more under-achieving… for what it promised to deliver for healthcare at least. For the past five years, AI funding in healthcare has exploded, including more than $13bn invested in AI-focused healthtech startups since the beginning of 2021 alone. Despite the influx of cash, the promised revolution has not materialised.

Ironically, it’s less the complexities of the human body that are the challenge: it’s the complexities of the healthcare industry that are inhibiting progress most – including fragmented, incompatible infrastructure and a complex regulatory landscape. You can’t just throw a tumour-spotting algorithm at any technology setup and get good results (whereas a radiologist, whose obsolescence was famously predicted by 2021, you can).

Then there’s the tricky issue of the humans at the end of the process. Understanding how an algorithm predicted the weather doesn’t often matter to anyone. Understanding how it decided you have cancer does. In one scenario you potentially get wet, in the other the impact might be life-changing. AI and ML still have huge potential to impact healthcare, but it might be in different ways than we expected and it will definitely take a lot longer than planned.

Why it matters

In theory, AI could improve areas of healthcare by analysing data to improve diagnoses quality and speed, target cures and make clinicians’ jobs easier. In reality, AI was put forward as the solution before all the right questions had been asked. It hasn’t been used to achieve a bold vision for healthcare or a radical goal for the healthcare system. Instead it has all-too-often been applied to improve or fix small parts of the system in a fragmented way

Compared to the 2kg CO2 moonshot above, there’s no equivalent vision to align efforts and resources here. Healthcare needs a bigger, bolder futurestate vision before any major gains are going to be made, and all of the humans that it’s ultimately for need to be taken on the journey. ‘We’re going to replace radiologists with AI’ was never going to play well with anyone who didn’t have a grudge against radiologists. ‘How can we use AI to make healthcare better?’ sounds like a good question to ask, but it isn’t: it narrows how people think from the outset.

The rule here is simple: don’t ask a leading question if you want an interesting answer.

Read more on AI's struggles with healthcare on Politico

Transforming a business? Think marshmallows

What’s going on?

This is a great piece by Forbes that highlights one of the big failings of transformation programmes: the, uh, actual transformation part.

Research indicates that as digital transformation initiatives continue to increase, there are growing gaps between technology capabilities purchased and tangible business outcomes realised. Simply put, leaders are driving the introduction of new capabilities but not focusing on realising the benefits of them, and as a result, to reference the iconic study from the 70s, they’re choosing instant gratification with one marshmallow now, over a bigger payoff of a handful of marshmallows if they wait a while.

There’s a growing gap between the theoretical capabilities that a ‘transforming’ company now has, and its ability to realise gains from them, and that means that a large percentage of the forecast $2.8Tn (yes, trillion) transformation spend predicted by 2025 will be on unrealised potential.

Why it matters

Whatever the exact number, it’s clear that a lot of money is being spent introducing capabilities without giving them the time and attention they need to deliver their intended outcomes. Many of these capabilities are in the form of new technology platforms, services and applications which are being implemented but not exploited.

This is a very expensive illustration of why digital transformation is about far more than technology. Simply throwing a fancy new platform at an existing process will likely not deliver anything transformative at all. Throwing it in and then not doubling-down on making it really count is even worse. Focus on the real transformation you’re trying to achieve and why you need to do it – like radically reimagining how you offer access to your services so you can provide a different level of value to tomorrow’s customer – before investing in the capabilities you need to make it real.

And when you do invest, focus on getting the payoff you deserve via a combination of focus and perseverance. Who wants one marshmallow when you can have the whole bag?

Read the original Forbes article here

This month we take a look at the promise and reality of smart cities, why catching up to everyone else might kill you, and why losing what makes you special in pursuit of what the markets say makes you special is a well-greased slope.

Smart people want not-so-smart cities

What’s going on?

In October 2017, Sidewalk Labs, the urban innovation arm of Alphabet set out a plan for Quayside; a big idea, with flashy new tech. A vision for a smart city. Fast-forward to 2022 and the very same city has, instead, rejected this vision of a smart city and launched a new project – one that promotes the notion that an urban neighbourhood can be a hybrid of the natural and the manmade.

So, what happened? 

Sidewalk’s vision for a smart city ladled on everything we’ve come to think of in a smart city: sensors, data, connectivity… it should have been smart city nirvana. Instead, a two-and-a-half-year struggle ensued. The Toronto locals, unimpressed with a seeming lack of seriousness about those pesky privacy concerns that Google keep tripping over,  ultimately forced Sidewalk to pull the plug.

Why it matters

It turns out that ‘smart cities’ aren’t so smart after all. It’s a concept that embodies an idealistic future and overlooks the importance of basic human needs. With their emphasis on the optimisation of everything, smart cities as conceived so far  seem designed to eradicate the very thing that makes cities wonderful.

We like to think of these situations as a reminder. A future born out of fiction can be tempting but, without taking the right steps to achieve it, it’s fundamentally a step too far – or in completely the wrong direction. Yes, leaders have to be brave when deciding where to take their businesses – or cities – but they should do so with an approach that defines a futurestate that everyone actually wants.

Read on at MIT Technology Review

That new coat of paint smell might kill you

What’s going on?

It’s taken 18 months but the Amazon design team can finally see the finish line as they start to roll out a completely overhauled experience for Amazon Prime Video. Amazon, naturally, is terribly excited about it and will laud it as a new generation of Prime Video experience. But the reality is that this is a pure catchup play: increasingly, if you take away the logos and labels, you’d be hard pressed to tell these services apart.

Why it matters

Too often, businesses of all kinds look to their competitors for their benchmark, and more critically, their inspiration for what to do next. This is actually very unlike Amazon, whose Bezossian-quotes that Amazon must ‘invent on the customer’s behalf’ is a particular favourite of ours.

When it comes to the design of a consumer platform, there are plenty of reasons that bringing your product up to scratch is a smart decision – as long as you recognise that this is what you’re doing, and you don’t see it as the ultimate goal. When there isn’t much differentiation in your sector a below-par experience can certainly have a substantively negative impact on your product. But be equally wary of what happens when sectors homogenise on design and features: inevitably, there’s a race to the (pricing) bottom ahead as it becomes harder and harder for consumers to choose between service A or B.

See a full breakdown of the redesign on The Verge

Uber races to 421st… out of 435

What’s going on?

A new consumer-sentiment study of 435 brands, using more than 1.4 billion keywords on various social media channels to measure consumers’ emotional connection with known-name brands across 19 industries found that Uber ranked near the bottom, at a lowly 421st. There’s plenty of reasons why the score may now be so low: falling foul of privacy laws, payment disputes with workers and, safety disputes with customers to name a few.

This is a business that feels a long way behind the common perception of it from just a few years ago: Uber has gone from a cool, edgy service that fought the system to do something great for consumers to grubby and exploitative.

Why it matters

We’ll say it again, unapologetically, that why and how you achieve something are at least as important as what you’re trying to achieve in the first place. No matter where you are on a digital transformation or scale-up journey, if you forget what made you special in the first place, or you sacrifice your values in the relentless pursuit of growth, there’s an inevitable storm ahead.

While Uber’s questionable internal shenanigans are well documented, every company has a similar challenge: how not to lose its essence as it transforms and grows. No-one is invulnerable, no matter how meteoric a rise they’ve had, or how long they’ve been around. Keep both eyes on what makes you special or you may end up being 422nd.

Read the full breakdown at Fast Company

An interlude to mention that our CEO’s book, Futurestate Design is starting a lot of conversations, including an interview with Mark on Business Leader’s podcast. Oh, and did we mention that we’re now offering a range of stand-alone futurestate design workshops? More on that below.

Now read on for an edition that covers a lack of cars, a fear of commitment and the benefits of multilingualism. Happy Tuesday.

Lend me your keys?

What’s going on?

The likes of Hertz, Europcar and Avis are having trouble building their fleets back up to pre-pandemic levels after their sell-offs saw them lose more than 30% of their vehicles. The car rental industry is arguing that because of global supply chain issues, chip shortages and price inflation they are struggling to meet consumer demand like they used to.

It’s not going to get easier, either. Because of this, ahem, ‘unprecedented’ demand, car manufacturers no longer have back-logged stocks of cars they are willing to sell at a discount. Getting your hands on a brand new car is harder than ever, leaving the car rental industry with an interesting dilemma.

Why it matters

Regular readers will know that we’re big on inventing what comes next before someone else does. Where an industry sees no brand new cars, we see the 40 million cars already on the road in the UK, many of which are not used very often. This is exactly where a handful of start-ups are beginning to grow – in the cracks of conventional thinking – by creating car-sharing platforms akin to an airbnb model.

This isn’t a win or lose battle for the industry, this is healthy innovation.The mainstay companies shouldn’t shy away from the opportunity, they should embrace it, leveraging their infrastructure to create a new generation of car rental services, both traditional and peer-to-peer. Build for future-consumer behaviours, don’t build for short-term constraints.

Read on at WIRED

Le cerveau bilingue

What’s going on?

Ok, so. We know this isn’t exactly ‘this month in business’; it’s an article originally published in 2008 covering new research into the neurobiology of bilingualism that’s becoming powerfully relevant again. Basically, research showed that being fluent in two languages, particularly from early childhood, enhances a person’s ability to concentrate (it might also protect against age-related cognitive decline). The more diverse the brain’s tools are, the better we can think.

Why it matters

You only need to look as far as Matthew Syed and his book ‘Rebel Ideas’ to understand the power cognitive diversity can have in the creative problem solving process. Cognitive diversity isn’t simply about having different people in the room; it’s about each of those people having as diverse a range of perspectives, ideas and experiences that they can apply to a problem.

Matthew Syed himself is part of a board of advisors for English football that includes educational theorist Michael Barber, serial entrepreneur Manoj Bedale, cycling coach Dave Brailsford and Sandhurst’s first female commander Lucy Giles. Not a football ‘expert’ in sight.

Cognitive diversity isn’t a guaranteed route to easy answers: it’s a route to different answers and connections that otherwise would not have been made. Sometimes those will lead you in unexpected directions and generate real breakthroughs. And that’s got to be worth your time in any language.

Read a summary of the research here

Our relationship with subscriptions is changing

What’s going on?

You might be asking yourself why we’re writing about the changing nature of subscription services again. Well, we can see that there’s a tipping point looming and it needs to be front of mind for every business. A recent survey has found that a third of UK consumers would cancel their Netflix subscription if it became ad-funded (i.e. cheaper or free)... at a time when Netflix is laying off staff en-masse because the credit crunch is causing consumers to cancel their premium subscriptions at an alarming rate. A story of growth has rapidly become, somewhat alarmingly, a story of decline.

Why it matters

Change begets change. The problem with subscriptions isn’t subscriptions. It’s a combination of commitment and inflexibility. Economic downturns often start with downward pressures on consumer spending, then ripple through the economy as business customers inevitably ask similar questions about spending as consumers. One-dimensional business models, which subscription businesses often become, give very little room to adapt and if you wait until things start going down hill, it may, as Netflix customers are telling them about that low-cost ad-supported version, be too late to react.

Read the original on Campaign Asia

Rather than despair, it’s important to be strategic, active and to lead abundantly. To give your teams the reassurance they need to get out of survival mode and into problem solving mode.

More than that, though, we don’t only want to solve today’s problems, we also want to innovate for tomorrow’s opportunities.

This month’s articles are doubling down on how crucial it is to invest in the future, also asking ‘what if…?’ as we try to define next steps. Easy.

Or it can be made easier — be reassured — by reading Futurestate Design: How to Step Out of the Past to Create a Business Fit For the Future, written by our CEO, Mark Wilson, and out now! Published only last week, in fact. 

Just a few things our network is saying about the book…

‘Absolutely love this book’

‘This is big’

’I read a lot and occasionally pick up a few real nuggets of insight. This book is full-to-the-brim with them. What a great read.’

Now to business as (not-so-)usual…

Renewing subscriptions

What’s going on?

Following consultation, the government is changing its Reforming Competition and Consumer Policy legislation, which includes significant tweaks to subscription rules.

Legislation aims to: improve the overall consumer experience of pre-contract information (so they’ll better understand what they’re signing up for); ensure reminders are sent before any auto-renewals and notifications of introductory offers and free trials coming to an end; and provide consumers an easy exit from any contracts to which they’ve signed up.

Why it matters

Subscriptions have proliferated over the last decade, and aren’t going anywhere. Whether that’s publications, new heads for your razor, or veg boxes, the convenience is obvious.

It’s been equally convenient for businesses to improve their conversion rates with low-cost or free trials that auto-renew, landing the consumer with sometimes unwanted monthly or — even more frustratingly — annual subscription payments.

‘Try before you buy’ is inviting, both rhetorically and practically. In terms of spinning up new subscription models to improve business outcomes, however, the new legislation will really test the mettle of languishing subs brands. Those that rely on returns from the on-the-fence consumer, too busy to unsubscribe, will definitely — and perhaps should — suffer. Time to make your proposition watertight, and to invest in future business planning.

Read the article in full on PPA

A front of precipitation… and innovation

What’s going on?

The Lemonade Foundation (the non-profit from Lemonade Insurance) are soon to launch  a Decentralised Autonomous Organisation, or DAO,  that’ll provide weather insurance to over 300 million farmers across Africa next year. Or, specifically, parametric insurance, which pays out based on the magnitude of the event, not the magnitude of losses incurred.

The farmers will be able to make claims through their smartphones and receive them in crypto- or local currencies.

Real-time weather data will provide immediate climate insurance to one of the industries most at risk from climate change.

Why it matters

Blockchain is revolutionising not only the insurance model here, but also the lives of its end users, simplifying the claims and claims approval process in a way that allows farmers to receive the support they need, as soon as they need it, following climate events.

When you consider mapping business- and user journeys, really think about when and where the need is and how you map value and transactions. Can you turn it on its head, as The Lemonade Foundation has with their parametric model? (‘What if…?’ continues to be the most powerful question in any business leader’s arsenal).

Equally, ask yourself how the blockchain could enable you to do things differently. Even if a DAO isn’t your next move, you’ll have come up with some smart ideas in the process, we’ll bet.

Read the original on The Globe and Mail

‘Outta my way...friend’

What’s going on?

This spring, yellow cabs will appear as an option when booking on the Uber app in New York. The partnership will allow taxi drivers to calculate fares before arrival and refuse trips.

Previous tensions between the two are no laughing matter, leading to the bankruptcy of 1,000 of the city’s cab drivers, 6 suicides, regulatory furore and Uber’s prices soaring due to lack of availability.

Why it matters

The tech platform has already partnered with taxi companies in other countries and it’s planning on world domination, looking to partner with every taxi company in the world.

Who are your biggest competitors? Which are your most frustrating external stakeholders? You may be shrewd, as Uber is, to consider these guys your biggest opportunity because by coming together as an alliance could increase the market for everyone. It’s not a bad media play either.

Read the original on The Verge

There are both words of warning and clear opportunities in this week’s edition of The Wrap. As always, expect a liberal dose of healthy recommendations and seeds of inspiration to help your business keep doing… business.

Onwards!

How much can your business learn from the MoD? Let me count the ways…

What’s going on?

Our hearts are all aflutter. The Ministry of Defence has put together an SME action plan, looking to rope in the expertise, agility and diversity of the nation’s entrepreneurs in regards to MoD procurement contracts.

Why it matters

The MoD recognises the changing landscape of the world they exist in. If it continues to implement traditional strategies in a world of non-traditional threats, then it’s more than just its business model that could suffer.

Good news! It’s spotted the wealth of opportunities beyond its usual ecosystem. By embracing these solutions, or providers, it brings multi-disciplinary teams and new thinkers into the fold, with a united goal. The possibilities are huge.

Do you have a consortium of providers whose expertise can be leveraged to achieve exponential innovation, or are your provider relationships simply ‘good’? How can you better enlist them to a shared purpose?

A business version of The A-Team. An easy sell-in, surely

Read the plan in full at GOV.UK

Same challenge, different cut

What’s going on?

Canada, on the other hand, is trying to expedite a growth plan for the future, but is lagging behind. It’s not for lack of trying. The recommendations in various lofty reports (with ‘10,000 foot-high language’) aren’t quite connecting to public policy, and investment in innovation has segmented into more regional endeavours without the hoped-for results.

Why it matters

The recommendations for the country, set out in this article — 10,000 foot-high language-free — are pointedly relevant to future business strategy more generally.

By taking the time to really consider the value of resources; by asking yourself, what untapped advantages can we double down on?; and — of course — by undergoing a bold digital transformation, you can become a major player in any field.

It’s definitely worth a read, but if there’s one quote we’d like to leave you with, it’s this, from John Baker, CEO of D2L Corp.,

“If we’re not building it then we’ll be buying it… The pace of digital transformation is unprecedented. We have to capture it or we jeopardize our future. Because, in a blink of an eye, it’s over.”

John, we couldn’t put it better ourselves (though we try to, often enough).

Read the original on The Globe and Mail

And a different cut again…

What’s going on?

The US is in a similar fix to Canada, but this time it’s in terms of how not to fall behind on electric vehicle (EV) industry, sales and infrastructure.

Significant underinvestment in the past (notably, Trump’s four years in office stalled already lagging investment into EVs) has meant that current intentions to perform in the EV market are seriously, seriously lagging.

Why it matters

Inherited problems aside, the US has two hefty nuts to crack when it comes to making up lost ground here.

Firstly,  addressing consumer behaviours can be key to succeeding in certain markets.

Charge points in the States are often clustered and improved access is essential. Why not break out of the ‘gas station’ infrastructure of yore, and support people’s lifestyles with charging points in places like grocery store car parks and, of course, at fast food outlets? EVs are a growing market in Europe, where there is less range anxiety… Combat that and the US can start to allay consumers’ fears.

By challenging legacy models (that, granted, used to work), you can usher in fresh approaches that can reset expectations and define new behaviours.

And, secondly: know what you’re not.

General Motors know what they do well, and what they don’t. This gives them the advantage that they can spot partnership opportunities (if you can’t beat them, they say…) without going to ground trying to compete with businesses who are leagues ahead.

In this case, knowing that they have little experience in the manufacture of electric motors, they’ve partnered with a Chinese company to create an entry-level EV.

Don’t be afraid to break free of bound-up thinking: it doesn’t matter if it’s another company, in another country, in another market, you can still deliver products you may not otherwise be able to, to consumers you can’t usually reach.

Read the original on Wired

Does yours? Do you really look beyond BAU? Is there impetus for building something new?

This month’s selection of articles makes the case for careful consideration of three key things: how to lead a team into a creative mindset; the importance of enlisting ideas from across a company (not just its board members); and exploring ideas beyond the business.

Enjoy the future before it’s too late. Dun dun duunn.

The way of Dao

What’s going on?

Blockchain is an area of increasing (and at times perplexing) possibility in the unquestionably digital world we all now live in. Crypto, NFTs: it all pivots on the idea of decentralisation.

The latest term to get to know is ‘dao’. It stands for ‘decentralised autonomous organisation’ and is basically a collective that pools funds to achieve a goal. Or, as is quoted in this New Yorker longread, they are ‘digital flashmobs with money’.

Powered by a cryptocurrency, or tokens, the more you own the bigger the share in the organisation’s voting rights you have. Allegedly, they promise to extend decision-making across a wider range of people, and not just a board of corporate elites. Vive la revolution!

Why it matters

Before we lose our heads in the hype, this isn’t really anything new. It’s the possibilities these organisations (that’s all they really are) are opening up for the digital economy that’s of note. Daos could replace anything from tech VCs to execs in the music industry or Hollywood — or perhaps long-established parts of the very industry you work in. That’s what’s making us take notice.

Because, for all the hair-brained purchase ideas coming out of daos (memorabilia, a golf course, an NBA team), there is the odd glimpse of promise.

What could this seemingly more democratic approach to business achieve? The possibilities these digital ‘parishes’ could unleash are unlimited.

Perhaps, if enough people wanted it, they could finally fix the leak in the church roof.

Read on at The New Yorker (£)

Connected to the future

What’s going on?

Cristiano Amon, the President and CEO of Qualcomm, takes us through the supply-chain issues that have tainted his first year as CEO; why chips are so integral to society; and how to stay ahead as a legacy brand.

Why it matters

It’s a brilliant example of C-suite comms done well.

Not only does Amon talk through the company’s impressive technologies in an accessible way, but he’s fairly frank and detailed on Qualcomm’s strategy. Since his recent appointment as CEO he’s stuck to the original direction, with the plan only to, as he puts it, ‘go bigger, faster… and quickly invest in the technologies that we need to execute in this vision.’

Of course you can only do that if the vision is clear in the first place and you get there by  investing energy into envisioning your futurestate. By being attuned to key trends ahead of time, the company is able to define their priority investments. Imagine that.

Read the original on The Verge

A nifty way to drive innovation

What’s going on?

Car manufacturer Renault’s internal innovation platform encourages their staff to not only upvote creative ideas, but also volunteer to help make them happen.

Why it matters

Another good lesson for the class: how to embed success into an operational model.

All-too-often managers are risk-averse, and will back the safer ideas that percolate in their offices – favouring not getting something wrong over breaking new (riskier) ground. By encouraging participation in truly creative ideas, Renault are super-charging their future growth. After all, the ideas that will future-proof a business can’t be found in traditional places: look for the sparks of insight and invention beyond BAU and you’ll find the good stuff.

And, of course, it’s a brilliant way to get internal champions for ideas. Not only are Renault giving team members the agency to follow ideas that inspire them, adding further purpose to the workday, but they’re also overcoming the false friend of peer-approval. Because it’s great to be confronted with a good idea, but that idea will have no value at all when there’s no one there to get it off the ground.

Read the original on Harvard Business Review

It can be fun, it has to be creative and it should veer towards the ‘out there’, but it should never be taken lightly.

If you innovate for the sake of it, you’ll create more problems than you solve – it’s the innovation-equivalent of the butterfly effect. And if you are truly innovating, then you’ll know it’s not just about those sparks of inspiration. Innovation often involves intensive deep-dives into processes, systems and strategies. 

Lots of research. New ideas collaborating with, or replacing, current thinking. Communication. And, yes, some due diligence.

It’s tough, but it’s worth it. And we’re back, refreshed, to help you through it, even if it’s just to share some of the things that have got us thinking.

Queuing up for the waccy vaccy

What’s going on?

Covid vaccinations have quadrupled in Quebec, since Canada has implemented the rule that if you want to enter liquor or marijuana stores you need to show your vaccine passport.

Why it matters

A hefty behavioural nudge, this, and we definitely aren’t suggesting you incentivise your customers with the hard stuff (well, maybe sometimes). But notice how, when sales tactics don’t work (i.e. outlining the benefits of the vaccines), Canada has adopted a successful heuristic: that the appetite for alcohol and marijuana outweighs the reasons not to get the vaccine (whether that’s due to indifference or being starkly opposed).

Don’t only think of the pain points and benefits of your products. Consider the relativity of each. Think about what customers want more than your product. What do they want less? It could help your marketeers with their storytelling, and it could unearth fresh concepts for your business, even altering your core value proposition. Maybe you’ll stop competing with your peers to be the best in obvious ways, and instead become the best in the ways that really matter to your customer.

Read on at CTV News

Don’t leave it up to Alexa to do all the thinking

What’s going on?

Not only are we happy to hear from Amazon that Alexa’s become ‘more trustworthy’ but we’re also interested to learn about their ‘ambient intelligence’ system, making at-home smart tech an all-round better experience.

Why it matters

We’ve got a keen eye on this thread of innovation, advancing the way we interact with the internet and internet of things. Pros and cons, of course, and it’ll be interesting to see how these changes affect the Amazon share price. Amazon knows that Alexa needs to become more integral to people’s lives and that a purely reactive Alexa just won’t cut it.

It’s easy for a company as forward thinking as Amazon to recognise this, though: innovation is a baked-in behaviour. The lesson? Always ask “what’s next?” Never rest on the laurels of yesterday’s successes.

Read the original on Amazon Science

Supply chain restaurants

What’s going on?

Eater.com explores innovations around dark kitchens, which give you access to your favourite restaurants’ meals whenever you want them, even though you don’t, in fact, live in Soho.

Why it matters

This article explores the ideas of dark kitchens, challenging the hype, but we think that — assuming they can overcome a similar range of issues to Uber in terms of employee fairness (additionally being reliant on gig economy-type delivery firms to get the food to the customer) — then dark kitchens are a good example of how supply chain and customer servicing can be approached in new ways.

The supply chain is going to be one of the hot topics of 2022, not only in dining but across the business world.

Read the original on Eater

How about the streamlining of services and their structures, for focused investment in delivering the best possible customer experience?

As offices close for the holidays, we’ve selected some crackers for all that time you’ll have on your hands over the next couple of weeks. We hope you all have a wonderful, and healthy, break.

Good enough isn’t good enough

What’s going on?

The Verge ‘look under the hood’ at Netflix, explaining how the streaming service is able to provide its content to its members almost seamlessly, thanks to a unique in-house content distribution network, Open Connect.

Why it matters?

This is a great example of knowing exactly what is most important to your success and investing heavily in the things that will deliver it.

It also shows how settling for the status quo means you’ll be in the shadows of companies that double-down on challenging it: what Netflix have done is build a solution to a problem that all streaming services face but, whilst the problem is ‘outside’ of their business, Netflix realised that they could steal a march on their competitors by taking ownership of the problem themselves, building their own bespoke CDN (content delivery network) to host their content close to where users are.

This type of locally distributed capability can be used in many ways, but rarely is. A simple example is in the US where health insurance representatives are often located in busy hospitals so that they are, literally, where they’re needed.

Read on at The Verge

Treatment for a case of ‘the siloes’

What’s going on?

NHS Digital and NHSX are being integrated into NHS England and NHS Improvement, in the interests of, as Sajid Javid puts it, ‘bringing workforce planning and digital transformation into the heart of the NHS.’

Why it matters

Whilst innovation ‘labs’ sound jaunty and impressive, siloed change teams just don’t work. At the heart of change leadership is the need to involve many varied minds from across the whole business, bringing those that will be responsible for delivering your vision on board early, and keeping people connected to the purpose.

Closed door business innovations rarely inspire ambassadors in those that have to work with the changes. This is a good — and long overdue — move from the NHS and a telling lesson for everyone else. Innovation is core business, not a special activity to be put in a silo.

Read the original on digitalhealth.net

One app to rule them all

What’s going on?

The buzzphrase du jour is the Super App, aka an app aiming to answer all your digital needs and capabilities in one experience. Want to chat to a friend? Want to pay for something? Book a flight? Check the news and weather? Play a game? Curb your addiction to question marks? It’s all there in one place.

Why it matters

Prevalent in Asia — most notably with WeChat, boasting $250 billion transactions through their single app’s ‘mini programs’ (or, apps within the WeChat app. Are you keeping up?) — some think we’ll see the rise of super apps here in the UK.

In the West, we’re much more attuned to single-purpose apps that are easier to use and easier to mix and match. The super app phenomenon in Asia is an important reminder that the same strategy can’t be applied to the whole world: you have to adapt to local customer habits and cultural differences. While we may see more all-in-one experiences (we’re getting flashbacks to AOL here) the reality is that this is likely to remain Asia-specific.

The lesson here? Keep your platforms flexible: build for flexibility, using platform strategies and services that can be surfaced to customers in whatever way suits them best.

Read the original on Paul Loberman’s LinkedIn

Blockchain of restaurants

What’s going on?

HBR have done a fine job at outlining what NFTs are and why they matter, so it’s worth reading this article to familiarise yourself if it’s still (understandably) unclear. The article also brings opportunities for the wider business world to the fore. Restaurants have started using NFTs to coordinate reservations, and the scope for ticket sales to be better secured on the blockchain (NFTs would enable royalties on secondary sales to go to the venues, as well as for venues to incentivise sales through allocating additional benefits to purchasers).

Why it matters

For now, it might seem that the NFT ecosystem (and the ecosystems within it) is little more than a distant curiosity, but it can be used to address myriad business concerns (traceability, security, distribution, loyalty, persistent royalties, the list goes on…) means you’d be smart to begin imagining how you might harness the concept of NFTs to open up new opportunities or solve some very stubborn problems.

Read the original on Harvard Business Review

As ever, what unites these articles is – yes, even the whales – how they impact your business.

Wherever you’re from, I am, too

What’s going on?

Sanas AI have developed software that enables real-time accent matching, in the interests of improving our understanding of each other. Speaking the same language isn’t going far enough; let’s speak in the same accent, too.

Why it matters

Not our usual format, this, linking to the company site directly, but it’s worth this being on your radar.

If thick accents inhibit speed of understanding in the current world, then it can only save time and cognitive load if we, well, streamline the UX of our speech in real time. You say potato and I hear potato.

This might stall the reintroduction of local call centres and re-ignite global customer service contracts: where you are in the world won’t be a barrier if you can perfectly ‘mimic’ a local.

We’re still not sure if this is harmony-positive or deceptive-dystopian but we’re confident it’s going to break down barriers – for both good and ill.

Read on at sanas.ai

Look to Tinder for inspiration

What’s going on?

Tinder are hosting a ‘Swipe Night’ during which its users interact with each other in a murder mystery-type format, getting paired up by the algorithm to solve the murder.

Why it matters

Doing things the way they’ve always been done, all because, uh, they’ve always been done that way is something we often warn against. It’s a golden rule. Don’t.

Tinder’s ‘Swipe Night’ is a great example of coming up with a fresh way of stimulating communication and facilitating new levels of connection using all the same underlying Tinder components. It’s a great example of BAU-level innovation; a new idea aimed at exploiting current capabilities in new ways.

Innovation doesn’t have to mean a ‘big’ innovation programme; it could be asking team members to present their ideas on new ways of doing everyday things. Adopt what works and keep people enthused by positively recognising what doesn’t. Help your team feel more confident in driving smaller innovations more often and they’ll have the confidence to embrace bigger changes when you need them to.

Read the original on techcrunch

When did you last gossip with a whale?

What’s going on?

Michael Bronstein, an Israeli computer scientist teaching at Imperial College London has started an initiative using AI and machine learning to try to communicate with whales.

Why it matters

Bronstein, who has said “I don’t know much about whales. I have never seen a whale in my life,” does make himself fit for the role through his mastery of data: aren’t whale clicks just patterns to be deciphered?

The lesson here is that if you apply the same brains to the issue at hand (say, asking marine scientists alone to interpret whales’ conversation), they’ll be unlikely to reframe it enough to come up with a bold new direction. Ask yourself, outside of your business, what type of expert would find solving this problem interesting? Who might look at this problem differently or bring parallel experience to the mix?

Involving brains beyond the norm could elevate your strategy and its outcomes to the extraordinary. Want a new perspective? Ask the whales.

Read the original on Hakai Magazine

‘In God we trust. All others bring data.’

What’s going on?

VCs note the only slight changes to the world of healthtech investments following the Theranos debacle. One bad egg hasn’t meant problems with the rest of the roost, it seems. It’s BAU for this significant growth area.

Why it matters

Whether exploring investments, business strategies or tech architecture, the lesson’s clear: if you’re not an expert in the area, be wary of how suggestible you are to ‘perfect’ propositions.

It’s true that we can’t arm ourselves completely against mistakes and, anyway, being overly cautious and cynical can make us miss out on innovative opportunities completely, but it’s also important not to believe in the possibility of absolutely anything.

Theranos was a great example of a simple lack of deep interrogation. Remember that asking questions makes us seem more, not less intelligent and gets us closer to the information we need to make smarter choices. You can only be as discerning as your information is solid. Ask more questions, even the stupid ones.

Read the original on Fast Company

Let’s get, err, ‘phygital’

What’s going on?

In a post-pandemic world, much of the retail industry is trying to figure out its next steps: go all-in on digital, or gamble on a sustainable business from the pent-up demand for physical experiences.

Brands are universally advised to create a cohesive experience across their customer interactions, enhancing the bricks-and-mortar experiences that customers couldn’t otherwise get online.

Why it matters?

Offering your customers access to your brand however it suits them makes sense: no dead-end journeys, serve them where they want to be served, make everything easy.

But that means resources for stores, call centres, apps, AI chatbots – the whole hog. Instead, we believe retail needs to be more considered: how can you make all the experiences you choose to offer as positive as possible? Distinctiveness counts more than ever so don’t just follow the herd.

Always, always, think and plan your proposition holistically. Loyalty to a brand is only as strong as the customer’s weakest experience so, as ever, perhaps you need to do less but do it better.

Read the original on Forbes

Commuter says no

What’s going on?

A study at Harvard has shown that longer commutes impact individuals’ creativity. According to the researcher, Andy Wu, this doesn’t necessarily mean remote working, with no commute, is therefore better. He instead supposes that a shorter commute enables more time in the office, collaborating with your team, which is what enhances creativity.

Why it matters?

A long commute can be tiring so it’s easy enough to believe it could hamper creativity. Except, for us, it’s not a question of its duration, or pitting remote and face-to-face work against each other. It’s a question of sameness.

The secret to creative thinking has always lay in variety and diversity. A hybrid week, as we do here, seems to be the ideal workplace approach to achieving that. Being able to give more time to life at home improves the work/life balance, overall happiness and energy levels of a team, and a twice-weekly commute – even when long – can in fact enhance creativity. And of course a 4 day week buys you that extra time to consume and think in a different mode.

So don’t do the same of anything is our guidance: sometimes the best ideas crop up in the in-between spaces.

Read the original on Harvard Magazine

“Just nipping out to get everything”

What’s going on?

Back in 2015, Carlos Moreno proposed the idea of the ‘15 minute neighbourhood’. Now he’s working with the Paris mayor to make the vision of a life where everything is within easy reach a reality.

Why it matters

Granted, it took a pandemic to wake up the masses, but the idea of having everything you need within a 15 minute walk or cycle of home (including work) is gaining some real traction.

The concept is far more fascinating than it seems - neighbourhoods effectively becoming micro-cities for local residents, reducing the need for travel, building community, speeding up decision-making at a local level… and much more.

Read this Wired piece then think about the parallels with modern business. Centralisation makes decision-making slow and reduces team creativity, productivity and happiness – people are just too far away. Instead think about how to create self-reliant organisational neighbourhoods where everyone can get what they need ‘nearby’ – from resources to a sense of community.

Read the original on WIRED UK

That clever manipulation of your customers’ behaviour? It’s not so clever after all.

What’s going on?

When companies use design ‘tricks’ to nudge or manipulate the choices their users make, they might not just be creating a future problem for themselves: they could be undermining the entire digital economy.

Why it matters

It turns out that doing the right thing is the right thing to do after all. After a plague of cunning design and (sometimes dark) UX patterns spread across digital services, the impacts are being felt. While you think it’s clever to present pricing, or terms, or privacy choices, or any number of important pieces of information in ways designed to manipulate what a customer does to your benefit, you need to consider the bigger picture.

Every time someone feels they’ve been tricked or are being manipulated by a digital experience, their trust – in all of them – is eroded.

If you rely on actively discouraging your customers from fully comprehending what they choose or can do, you’ve got, and are contributing to, a much bigger cumulative problem. Be prepared for unexpected consequences.

Read the original on Harvard Business Review

Forget Fintech. Fin-tech is the future.

What’s going on?

As usual, nature seems to have figured stuff out already. The design of fish fins is remarkable, albeit still not fully understood, and it could lead to some revolutionary new engineering approaches.

Why it matters

It’s the same old story: look in unusual places for inspiration and you might make the kind of breakthrough that changes everything. Few people would think to look at Nemo’s tail action when they considered how to make a robot better able to hold someone’s hand, or an aircraft whose wings responded to the nature of the air around them.

We’re always awe-struck by this kind of science because it reminds us that unless you take the time to really ask the ‘what if?’ questions – or simply look in unexpected places for inspiration – you’re unlikely to take a big leap forward.

Of course, it goes without saying that the innovations that emerge from this breakthrough will also need plenty of chips…

Read the original on Fast Company

Out-of-the-box is out for Apple. Now it’s out for Google too.

What’s going on?

Apple launched their own M1 processor to power iPads and Macs. No longer reliant on Intel, they won’t be held up explaining the boring details of why they have low battery life (‘Not our fault!’), or why some apps won’t work on their iOS (‘It’s complicated’). These won’t be issues any more, now they can do their own thing, making self-defined improvements. Now Google is in on the act, with their own silicon, the Tensor chip.

Why it matters

Buying off-the-shelf or using out-of-the-box functionality is exactly what you should do when it enhances your business’ capabilities: don’t build what doesn’t differentiate you. BUT... it’s important to recognise when you’re paying a lot of money for something that starts to hold you back. For Apple and Google, general-purpose processors, no matter how good, are doing just that.

We frequently see money thrown at too much custom tech or processes. We also see the opposite; companies afraid to leave the safety of standard approaches to differentiate. The right approach is a judgement, and it’s never a forever choice. Is this still the system we’d choose, knowing what we know now? Does this process help us compete or can we just do the same as everyone else?

Sometimes, to succeed, you need to be prepared to throw out generalised systems that might not be serving you as well as you assume. Differentiation, even by small amounts, can really count.

Read the original on Medium and on Google's The Keyword

Why change the subject when it’s this good?

What’s going on?

A big month for processor-related news, this: British chip designer Arm has designed the most powerful low-cost, plastic microprocessor, which may be the crucial step towards an Internet of Everything – that is, building Internet of Things capabilities into, well, everything. With microchips as cost-effective as this one, it’s feasible that even throwaway items could be made ‘smart’. A milk carton that lets you know when the contents are off. A wound dressing that monitors moisture levels to ensure optimal healing. You get the idea.

Why it matters

This innovation shows how very close we are to a sea-change in how we interact with the world around us – and how it integrates with us. This really is some science fiction made real, and it’s time to start thinking about how you can harness it to change how you interface with your customers. And equally, what new future-only business models could sweep in and steal your market?

The groundwork for tomorrow’s business is always laid in the emergent: technologies; business models; or human behaviours. Even if it begins with an informal chat, take ‘distant’ horizons seriously, or you might regret it sooner than you think.

Read the original on Singularity Hub

‘Inclusivity’ can’t be lip service

What’s going on?

Read a potted, thought-provoking and inspiring history of how innovation is driven by inclusivity.

Why it matters

‘Thirty years ago, Berners-Lee laid the foundation for a better world, a digital world, with limitless opportunity. It has benefited the majority. Now it’s time we let in the warriors among us, who live without comfort, who are brave enough to fight for change. They are the ones who will advance us further. They helped get us this far.’

Inclusivity isn’t an add-on. It’s at the heart of driving change. Every new audience generates insights and opportunities. Every improvement to inclusivity for ‘minority’ audiences has a habit of turning up unexpected wins for the majority. So go on, let in the warriors, you won’t regret it.

Read the original on Wired US

Driving ideas across the finish line

What’s going on?

Autonomous cars are creeping closer in our rearview mirrors. A longtime sci-fi notion, the ‘lidar’ – one of the radar-like systems that help vehicles to know what’s around them – is hoping its precision technology can avoid all car crashes.

Why it matters?

Cars, vaccines, scooters, airplanes – whatever the innovation, it’s always a question of safety/risk in their widespread adoption, not their inception. Knowing when an idea, or a product is viable for launch demands some form of foresight.

So what can you do? Whether it’s making a case through testing or other evidence-based lobbying, or building a case to take to your board, we say don’t ignore your hunches, but know that they’ll need to be validated. Consumer testing is essential... but maybe let the crash-test dummies go first.

Read the original article on Singularity Hub

Whichever way you read it, the 4-day week works

What’s going on?

Japan is recommending companies offer their staff 4-day work weeks, in the interests of the country’s economy. The benefits, they cite, include increased spending and child-rearing (procreating a younger workforce for an increasingly ageing population). 

Why it matters

Far be it for the 4-day week champions at Wilson Fletcher to weigh in on the discussion, but well, duh. Teams work better when they're fresher and are happier when they’re trusted.

The 4dw helps teams work super-effectively those days they’re in, with enough of a break when they’re not to reset and enjoy the lives they work hard to support. And make more babies.

Read the original on Futurism

Carbon offsetting, but not as you know it

What’s going on?

Companies that have pledged carbon neutrality as a result of the pandemic have realised that they’ve just relocated their carbon footprints to the homes of their team members. In order to actually report on this, they need to monitor their teams’ energy uses at home. To minimise their impact, firms may have to implement new policies like subsidising any cost increase to their staff for switching to an eco-friendly energy provider.

Why it matters

Anonymising the data, as the energy-tracking startup Pawprint does, may mitigate the data privacy issues felt at sharing your monthly energy bill, but what’s interesting here is how two huge concerns come up against each other unexpectedly: it’s personal data privacy vs. protecting the environment.

All actions have consequences, so consider their impact holistically and here, like many aspects of change, new opportunities will emerge. Work collaboratively with a diverse team of those involved to spot these opportunities and you’ll find unexpected ways to improve your customer experience, teams’ output and even your impact on the planet. Remember: you have to think big about the small stuff too.

Read the original on Wired UK

June, we’re ready for you.

Je ne regrette rien (except for missing that bill payment)

What’s going on?

Remember those memberships that required active renewal? Your roadside assistance that ran out the day before you found yourself sodden on the hard shoulder?

Well, expired subscriptions are about to become so much more critical: Klim, an airbag vest manufacturer, offers its $400 product with a subscription. Missed a payment? No problem: your safety vest just won’t inflate on impact.

Why it matters

Subscription-based services that provide enrichment of a physical product are a huge opportunity area for many companies, but the idea that safety could be ‘paywalled’ like this is really missing the point.

Maximising value for your product’s various benefits via a hybrid purchase + subscription model can be a great idea, but before you launch it as the next big thing,  take a step back and think, ‘could this approach have ethical implications?’ If it’s not a 100% no, then don’t rush the decision to capitalise. That very modern business model that looks great on your P&L might inadvertently be your undoing.

Read the original article on vice.com

Here today, Tron tomorrow

What’s going on?

Toyota have prototyped its new ‘Woven City’ at the base of Mount Fuji, powered by hydrogen fuel cells and teeming with autonomous vehicles, and future stuff.

More than 3,000 people have applied for the city already, which will open in 2024 with a capacity of 2,000 inhabitants to start with, and more thereafter.

Why it matters

From a company that made its name creating steam-powered looms (the clue’s in the name ‘Woven City’), to making cars, and beyond, Toyota isn’t shy when it comes to diversifying their portfolio... all in the interests of the environment; more efficient, fit-for-purpose urbanisation; and to trail-blaze the brand into the future (in no particular order).

What this really hammers home, again, is how enthusiastically people will shift their behaviour, even their whole lifestyle, when something compelling is offered to them. It's one of our mantras writ large: design to create a new behaviour not fix a problem if you want to open up the really big new opportunities.

Read a summary on singularityhub.com

Why mole rats might tell us something – or nothing– about ageing and ideas

What’s going on?

Naked mole rat, Joe, is turning 40 next year, and scientists are exploring the species’ singularity when it comes to ageing, wondering how useful their relative longevity could be when explored under a microscope and translated to humans and other species. If at all.

Why it matters

The ageing population of consumers aside, what we enjoyed was the premise that good ideas don’t always translate. Here, because mole rats aren’t really comparable mammals – 'while a Tesla is a car, its spare parts won’t fix your cousin’s Ford Pinto. Maybe the really good stuff is built differently—and is irreconcilably untranslatable.’

In business, the same applies: because it works for a startup, it doesn’t mean it will work for you. Because someone else did it, doesn't mean it's a good idea for you to do it. Making the most of your own distinctive attributes, the things that make you unlike anyone else is where you'll find the gold.

We'll leave you with that pithy mantra: remember, don't try to be a naked mole rat. You're welcome.

Read a great summary on wired.com

With careful consideration, businesses can be ready to act, or even collaborate, on these changes.

*Bah humbug

Be careful what you think

What’s going on?

In his latest hair-brained (literally) scheme, Elon Musk is developing an implant that enables people to control their smartphones with their minds.

Why it matetrs?

We’ve talked before in The Wrap about how inclusive design shouldn’t be an afterthought; how often it’s designed for a few but taken up by the many – the typewriter, or flexible straws as examples. Here, the possibilities could be transformative for paraplegics, and possibly for us all: will no interface be the perfect interface? Fancy a truly seamless customer experience, akin to summoning a genie?

Ethical and existential questions abound: will the implant always act on our instruction – what if it malfunctioned? Will it only act on our instruction, or will it ‘listen’ to us, too? Would our thoughts (how we think, not just what action we decide to take) become currency? Expect unexpected outcomes.

Read the original on Futurism.com

Bank of England's crypto(ish) plans get a stamp of disapproval

What’s going on?

An unknown Bitcoin user, and central bank skeptic projected ‘Bitcoin fixes this’ on the BoE and the Houses of Parliament, seemingly in response to the Bank of England considering creating a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).

Why it matters

For some, the question of governance – or independence from political levers – at the BoE is a murky one, and they prefer to invest in crypto, clearly. Decentralised = good. Centralised = bad.

The fiscal fisticuffs have begun, with the BoE bringing in a taskforce to discuss the potential of their own digital currency. It’ll be called Britcoin, naturally.

Should Britcoin be brought in for common use (it’s already offered to banks and select financial institutions), the everyday citizen’s relationship with a bank could shift in interesting ways. Not only is there the assurance that the bank won’t go bust, but it will be able to directly stimulate the economy and apply negative rates. A new era for the current account.

Progress, or merely the latest way for the banks to try to see off encroaching threats?

Read the original on Coin Telegraph and more on CBDC on BBC

Prepare to feel like an under-achiever

What’s going on?

Forbes shares their list of promising young achievers for the year, each annoyingly impressive in their respective fields.

Why it matters

Look beyond your own regrets at not having been an associate professor at Cambridge at the age of 23. This list showcases a host of the year’s innovators and pioneers, but it also highlights just why we live in such interesting times. This is the level of creativity and dynamism that incumbents have to contend with this year: imagine what next year’s are up to.

The sheer volume and variety of this year’s list shows that there are few stones that can’t be overturned by young talents. If there’s one message here for established businesses, it’s that the time to take your market share for granted is never.

Read the original on Forbes